Regarding decisions

We're encountered with an endless amount of decisions each day, ranging from what to wear to what to eat to whether or not you should buy a car. And so on. And all the while every decision you make should be the best possible decision at that moment in time. And even that is not trivial as the decision should also take into account the future. What if situations change?

Very often good decisions are mixed up with good outcomes. I guess some introductory course in decision making will outline that the best choice is a good decision that creates a good outcome. And at the other end of the scale in value is the bad decision with the bad outcome. But how to rank the good decision, bad outcome and bad decision, good outcome scenarios? Decisions, to be good, should be a logical conclusion that's the best choice given the limited amount of data and time you have at your disposal. So in this sense in the long run you will undoubtedly want to make more good decisions than bad ones, even though a bad one will occasionally, by chance, bring a good outcome. So I guess intuitively it means that the second best option is the good decision and the bad outcome, as only then will you ever be able to possibly achieve the best outcome; good decision, good outcome. These apply to all aspects of life, as life is mainly a question of making the best possible decisions. You decide not to do something because it's not a good thing to do. But always the decision should be the best that you can make at that moment.

That said, things are not that clear and the mix-up between decisions and outcomes is a very real one. Today the stockmarkets were rallying, regardless of all the uncertainty around the recession that's around the corner. I was able to close my position with Outokumpu and thus ending nearly a year of being in red with it. And in the end I was able to get even. I based my actions on the view that the current optimism is too much and that in fact the situation in the world economy is not necessarily as rosy as people today seemed to think. And that Outokumpu is in even more trouble if recession hits. I guess I could open up the entire rationale behind why Outokumpu might not be a wise investment right now, but that would hardly interest anyone reading this. Suffice to say, I felt that I made the best decision at the moment.

Now, of course what happened then was that Outokumpu continued rallying for another 41 cents and ending up at 27.41 euros. Now, in light of this, I did feel a little shaken by the fact that it kept on going up and started doubting my decision and whether it would've been wiser to hold onto the position after all. But even still, deep down, I feel that closing the position was the best choice at the time and that Outokumpu will be coming down in a bit. Possibly even tomorrow as an 8.77% increase in a single day is quite much. If nothing else, if the stock goes down a euro or two, I'll at least be able to buy back my positions and then some with the same amount of money. And if it doesn't go down, well, the world's economy is still in a very volatile state and it might be wise to close positions that aren't deep in the red and that you feel good about closing to build a bankroll with which to look at possible new investments when the markets start tumbling downward again. And I do think that we haven't necessarily even seen the bottom yet. And yes, I have been told that I'm pessimistic. But the thing is that even I may hit the nail on the head every once in a while...